A simulation study presented at the American Heart Association's Scientific Sessions 2024 found that cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic syndrome components were associated with earlier onset of elevated cardiovascular disease risk, according to data presented by researchers.

In the study, which used the American Heart Association's (AHA) PREVENT calculator, investigators analyzed the simulated risk profiles of adult patients aged 30 to 79 years.

The data showed that those with both type 2 diabetes and stage III chronic kidney disease (CKD) reached elevated cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk at 42 years among women and 35 years among men—26 and 28 years earlier, respectively, than those without the conditions.

The investigators defined elevated risk as a 7.5% or higher probability of experiencing a heart attack or stroke within 10 years. Risk profiles were constructed using National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey data from 2011 to 2020, with CKD defined as an estimated glomerular filtration rate of 44.5.

The data showed:

• Stage III CKD alone: Elevated risk appeared 8 years earlier (age 60 among women, age 55 among men)
• Type 2 diabetes alone: Risk elevation occurred 9 to 11 years earlier (age 59 women, 52 among men)
• Combined conditions: Risk elevation appeared 26 to 28 years earlier.

Lead researcher Vaishnavi Krishnan, BS, of Northwestern University and Boston University School of Medicine, noted that understanding how age interacts with risk factor levels was important for cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic (CKM) health, particularly in patients with borderline elevations who did not yet meet diagnostic criteria.

Study co-author Sadiya S. Khan, MD, MSc, Chair of the PREVENT Equations Writing Group, stated that while the findings represented a step toward understanding risk model dynamics, additional research and guidelines were needed to establish clinical thresholds and implementation strategies.

According to the AHA, nearly 50% of U.S. adults have some type of CVD, and about 33% of them present with at least three CKM syndrome risk factors. The study's primary limitation was its use of simulated rather than real-world population data.

This preliminary research was presented at the AHA's Scientific Sessions 2024 and had not undergone peer review at the time of presentation.