Limiting nicotine in cigarettes could stop 48 million young people from starting to smoke and prevent more than 4.3 million tobacco-related deaths by the end of the century, according to a recent announcement.
The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) proposed a rule to reduce nicotine in cigarettes and certain other combusted tobacco products to minimally or nonaddictive levels. This measure, grounded in extensive research, represents a public health effort to reduce smoking-related morbidity and mortality by limiting nicotine exposure and dependence. Researchers at the FDA developed the proposal based on evidence indicating that reduced nicotine content in combusted tobacco products decreases addiction potential without causing compensatory increases in smoking behavior.
The proposed rule would establish a maximum nicotine level of 0.7 mg per gram of tobacco for products such as cigarettes, roll-your-own tobacco, most cigars, and pipe tobacco. Notably, noncombusted products, including e-cigarettes, nicotine pouches, and smokeless tobacco, are excluded. According to the FDA’s population health model, the rule, if implemented, is projected to prevent 48 million youth and young adults from initiating smoking by 2100. Among current smokers, an estimated 12.9 million individuals are expected to quit within the first year, with the figure rising to 19.5 million within five years of implementation.
Additionally, the model predicts the policy could avert 1.8 million tobacco-related deaths by 2060 and up to 4.3 million by 2100. The estimated societal benefits, including reductions in healthcare costs and productivity losses, are calculated at more than $1.1 trillion annually over the first four decades following the rule's enactment.
“This proposal allows for the start of an important conversation about how we meaningfully tackle one of the deadliest consumer products in history and profoundly change the landscape of tobacco product use in the United States,” said Brian King, PhD, MPH, director of the FDA’s Center for Tobacco Products.
The FDA plans a 2-year compliance period for manufacturers after finalization and is seeking public input on key aspects of the rule. Feedback on the proposed nicotine limit, the timeline for compliance, and the potential for illicit trade will be reviewed alongside input from the FDA’s Tobacco Products Scientific Advisory Committee.
