Global prevalence of childhood and adolescent obesity has more than tripled since 1990, and projections indicate continued steep increases through 2050 unless immediate actions are taken, according to comprehensive forecasting research.
The Global Burden of Disease study, conducted by an international team of researchers, found that by 2021, 93.1 million children and adolescents aged 5 to 14 years and 80.6 million teenagers and young adults aged 15 to 24 years were living with obesity globally. If current trends continue, researchers project approximately 360 million children and adolescents will have obesity by 2050, representing nearly half of the forecasted 746 million young people who will have either overweight or obesity.
The study distinguishes between overweight and obesity as separate categories: obesity is increasingly considered a complex chronic disease that carries greater disease burden and immediate impacts on child and adolescent physical and mental health.
"Both overweight and obesity increased substantially in every world region between 1990 and 2021, suggesting that current approaches to curbing increases in overweight and obesity have failed a generation of children and adolescents," the researchers reported in The Lancet. "Beyond 2021, overweight during childhood and adolescence is forecast to stabilize due to further increases in the population who have obesity."
Despite this forecasted stabilization in overweight, obesity prevalence will continue to rise significantly—an important distinction that highlights the shift toward more severe weight-related health concerns.
The study, which analyzed data from 1,321 unique measured and self-reported anthropometric data sources from 180 countries, is the most comprehensive global examination of childhood and adolescent weight patterns to date. Researchers estimated overweight and obesity prevalence for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2021, with forecasts to 2050.
Regional Variations and Critical Transitions
Significant geographical variation exists in weight gain patterns. In 2021, prevalence was highest in North Africa and the Middle East, particularly in the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait. The most rapid increases were observed in Southeast Asia, East Asia, and Oceania.
The researchers identified an "obesity transition" in regions where populations shifted from predominantly overweight to predominantly obese. By 2021, females in high-income North America and Australasia had already transitioned to obesity predominance, as had males and females in several countries in North Africa, the Middle East, and Oceania.
By 2050, the study forecasts several populations will transition to obesity predominance, including:
- Males aged 5 to14 years globally
- Children and adolescents (both sexes, 5 to 24 years) in North Africa, the Middle East, and Tropical Latin America
- Males aged 5 to 14 years in East Asia, central and southern sub-Saharan Africa, and central Latin America
"Globally, 15.6% of those aged 5 to 14 years are forecasted to have obesity by 2050 (186 million), compared with 14.2% of those aged 15 to 24 years (175 million)," the researchers found.
Immediate Action Needed
Substantial increases in childhood obesity are projected between 2022 and 2030, with continued acceleration through 2050.
The study called for different approaches based on regional needs—prevention strategies in regions where overweight remains predominant and clinical interventions in regions where obesity predominance has occurred or is imminent.
"Because substantial change is forecasted to occur...immediate actions are needed to address this public health crisis," the researchers warned.
The study was funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council. Full disclosures can be found in the article.