A new proteomic risk score, based on 32 blood proteins, may predict an increased likelihood of developing chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and respiratory-related mortality, according to a recent press release.

In a study, published in the American Journal of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, researchers supported by the National Institutes of Health (NIH) developed a proteomic risk score designed to predict increased susceptibility to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and other severe respiratory conditions. They analyzed longitudinal data from 2,470 U.S. adults over a 30-year period as part of the CARDIA study. The proteomic score, derived from 32 proteins linked to accelerated lung function decline, demonstrated a strong association with respiratory morbidity and mortality.

Participants with higher proteomic risk scores exhibited an 84% increased likelihood of developing COPD and an 81% increased risk of respiratory-related mortality, including conditions such as pneumonia. The score was validated in two external cohorts, the UK Biobank and COPDGene, confirming its predictive utility for respiratory disease and mortality. For example, in the UK Biobank cohort, a higher susceptibility score was associated with an increased hazard ratio (HR) for all-cause mortality (HR = 1.56, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.50–1.61) and respiratory mortality (HR = 2.39, 95% CI = 2.16–2.64).

“[The risk score] consolidates insights from decades of breathing tests and medical evaluations into a single tool that has the potential to identify patients at risk for severe disease and complications,” emphasized James P. Kiley, PhD, Director of the Division of Lung Diseases at the NIH’s National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, in a companion press release. 

The susceptibility score included proteins that are both commonly and newly associated with lung health, showing potential for detecting lung disease early without the need for long-term spirometry monitoring. Noted in the press release, “this type of blood test still needs to be studied in clinical trials before being considered for approval by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration as a screening tool to help predict risks for chronic respiratory diseases.”

The study was funded by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute.