Asthma rates declined worldwide over the past three decades and are projected to continue decreasing through 2030, according to researchers who analyzed Global Burden of Disease data from 204 countries.
The global age-standardized incidence of asthma was projected to fall from 514 cases per 100,000 in 2022 to 450 per 100,000 in 2030. Prevalence rates were projected to decrease from 3,335 to 3,203 per 100,000 during the same period.
However, China showed concerning trends with adolescent rates aged 15 to 19 years projected to increase despite overall national declines. Gender patterns shift during adolescence, with males having higher burden before age 15, after which females exceed males.
Regional differences persisted. The United States showed increases in prevalence and years lived with disability, while Japan reported the steepest decline. In 2021, Haiti had the highest prevalence rate, and Lesotho had the lowest. High-income North America reported the highest regional burden for both men and women.
The highest incidence was observed in children younger than 5 years, while prevalence and disability-adjusted life-years peaked in patients older than 90 years. National case counts were also strongly associated with population size.
Smoking, high body mass index, occupational exposures, and nitrogen dioxide were identified as leading risk factors. In China, smoking remained the top contributor in men in 1990 and 2021. High body mass index rose in rank for both men and women over the study period.
“Adolescence could be a new focus for asthma prevention in China, warning schools and communities to enhance targeted health education—a nuanced finding overlooked in previous global studies,” wrote lead author Zhenzhen Pan, MD, of the Department of Respiratory Medicine, Children’s Hospital of Soochow University, Suzhou, China, and colleagues.
The study analyzed asthma incidence, prevalence, and disability measures from 1990 to 2021 using Bayesian modeling for projections through 2030.
Limitations include reliance on statistical modeling that could be influenced by external factors such as climate change or healthcare access changes.
The authors reported no conflicts of interest.
Source: Frontiers in Medicine
