A comprehensive systematic review and meta-analysis reveals the global prevalence of myopia among children and adolescents is projected to rise significantly, reaching approximately 40% of the adolescent population by 2050.
The study, published in the British Journal of Ophthalmology, analyzed data from 276 studies involving 5,410,945 participants across 50 countries. Key findings from the analysis include an increase in the overa;; rate of myopia from 24.32% to 35.81% between 1990 and 2023, a current global prevalence of childhood myopia estimated at 30.47%, and an estimate that by 2050, 740,592,000 children and adolescents worldwide are projected to be affected by myopia.
Additional findings of the study include regional differences in myopia prevalence, with East Asia demonstrating the highest numbers, as well as higher myopia rates for adolescents, females, and people living in urban environments.
The researchers conducted an extensive literature search across multiple databases, including PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and Chinese databases, covering studies from database inception to June 27, 2023. They included population-based studies of children and adolescents aged 5-19 years that provided specific numerical prevalence estimates of myopia, defined as a spherical equivalent of -0.50 diopters or less.
Projections derived from the datasets included in the study predict global prevalence of myopia will continue to grow year over year and decade over decade for people between the ages of 6 and 19. The estimates show a global prevalence of 32.21% by 2030, 36.59% by 2040, and 39.80% by 2050.
The researchers employed a random-effects model for meta-analysis and used the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model for projections. They assessed study quality using the Joanna Briggs Institute (JBI) critical appraisal tool and the GRADE system.
Limitations of the study included variability in study designs and methods, potential selection or measurement bias, and uneven distribution of data among countries within continents. Additionally, the quality of included studies ranged from high to low risk of bias.
This meta-analysis provided the most recent and comprehensive estimates of global myopia prevalence, noting the substantial variation across different regions, and called for further research with a region-specific approach to develop effective local strategies.
The authors declared having no competing interests.
