Seventy-one percent of Olympic competitors participate only once, while 8% compete in more than two, according to a recent study.

Published in Significance, the study analyzed the career trajectories of Olympic athletes, focusing on peak performance windows. By utilizing historical performance data, the researchers identified factors influencing an athlete's prime period.

Methods and Results

The analysis indicated that an athlete's career follows a parabolic trajectory, with peak performance, or "prime," largely constrained by age. Data from World Athletics, spanning the past seven Olympic Games, was used to model career progression and peak performance age via survival analysis. 

The median peak age for athletes was found to be 27 years old. The age has remained consistent for the past 25 years despite variations in other sports. The average age was similar between men (26.9 years) and women (27 years). Finalists were typically 16 months older than the average participant, with medalists being only 1 month older on average. The mean age of athletes at the Tokyo 2020 Olympics was 27.6 years, which was somewhat higher, likely due to the delay caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Factors Influencing Peak Age

Survival analysis was used to model the time until an athlete's peak, considering factors such as gender, nationality, event type, and training age. Training age, defined as the number of years an athlete has been competing, emerged as the most significant predictor of peak performance, with a variable importance score of 0.91. Athletes with longer training periods tend to peak later.

Event category was the next most influential factor (0.77), with the peak of road racers being the "easiest" to predict, while the peak of throwers the most difficult.

Nationality followed (0.64), which requires further examination. Gender had a minor role in predicting peak age (0.59), and the timing of an Olympic year had the least influence on peak performance prediction (0.31). The study also indicated a statistically significant difference between an athlete's proximity to their career best in Olympic years versus non-Olympic years, suggesting that the Olympic Games provide a strong incentive for athletes to reach their peak performance.

Case Study: Kim Collins

The study highlighted the case of sprinter Kim Collins, who achieved his personal best in the 100-meter race at age 40. Collins' career includes two distinct peak periods: the first between ages 26-29 and the second from 37-40. This example illustrates the variability in peak performance windows and the potential for multiple peaks in an athlete's career. Notably, the average retirement age for athletes in the dataset is 32 years old, underlining the rarity of Collins' longevity and sustained performance.

Physiological and External Factors

Physiological factors, such as age and event-specific demands, significantly determine an athlete's peak performance window. However, external factors, including the timing of the Olympic Games and the depth of an athlete's national competition, also influence the likelihood of achieving Olympic qualification and success.

This study was conducted by David Awosoga and Matthew Chow, with data provided by World Athletics and support from the University of Waterloo Analytics Group for Games and Sports.